The Pre Market Report - Thursday 10 July
Will ES challenge the ATH?
So, what's the market looking like this Thursday? In a nutshell, constructively bullish vibe due to a big chunk of positive (GEX) hanging around at time of writing. Generally, short of event risk today, looks like a steady grind higher unless we move below key pivots. Unemployment claims just printed (fairly constructive), with the 30Y Treasury auction later and FOMC speakers providing volatility windows.
This might be one to stay patient, maybe utilize AVWAP and go with the flow initially— however, the market is in a state of balance. We could see responsive sellers step in near the highs, so, upside targets should be watched closely for reversals to downside targets and pivots.
NQ & ES: What to Watch
For the Nasdaq (NQ), it's currently consolidating just under some recent highs. The main action today will be between the 22,981 support and the 23,191-23,221 resistance zone. If buyers can hold that support, we could see a push towards the higher resistance levels. But if that support gives way, we might see a dip down to the 22,841 area. On ES, things are looking even more bullish. It's drifting near its high vol level, with a huge wall of positive gamma above it. This suggests a slow, steady climb is more likely than a big jump, and it has some solid support at 6,277. As long as that holds, we're likely to keep grinding higher towards 6,332 and 6,347.
The VIX, is pretty low right now (around 15.87), which is a good sign for bulls, providing a tailwind for indices. Watch for any move above 17 to potentially signal any reversals. Also watch for any unusual flows on the 0dte side especially later in the session.
Yesterday I had a nice short running — however, ticked out overnight, as some SPY/SPX positive GEX/charm flows drifted us up filling the LVN from the rapid drop from the highs. Book partials when possible!
Trade Safe
-Z